Bonus Bet Converter

A tool for turning sportsbook promotions into an estimate of real cash value. Covers the three most common promo mechanics: free bets / bet credits, risk-free (first bet) insurance, and deposit match bonuses.

Why Three Modes?

Sportsbooks use very different mechanics for "free money" offers, and each one converts to cash differently:

• Free Bet / Bet Credit - a fixed bonus amount you can wager once. Converted to cash by hedging the bonus bet against the opposite side of the market.
• Risk-Free Bet - a normal cash bet where, if you lose, you're refunded as a bonus bet (not cash) up to a cap. The value comes from the downside protection, not from any bonus stake itself.
• Deposit Match Bonus - a percentage match on your deposit, released as bonus funds that usually carry a rollover (playthrough) requirement before withdrawal.

Mode A: Free Bet / Bet Credit

Formulas

Decimal Odds = odds > 0 ? odds/100 + 1 : 100/|odds| + 1

Win Amount = Free Bet ? BonusAmount * DecimalBonusOdds
           : Bet Credit ? BonusAmount * (DecimalBonusOdds - 1)

Hedge Stake = Win Amount / DecimalHedgeOdds
Hedge Profit (if hedge wins) = Hedge Stake * (DecimalHedgeOdds - 1)

Scenario 1 (bonus wins) = Win Amount - Hedge Stake
Scenario 2 (bonus loses) = Hedge Profit

Guaranteed Profit = Min(Scenario 1, Scenario 2)
Conversion Rate = Guaranteed Profit / Bonus Amount

Longer odds on the bonus leg generally convert at a higher rate, because more of the payout is "winnings" rather than stake you never had.

Mode B: Risk-Free Bet

A risk-free bet is not free money - it's insurance on cash you already risked. If it loses, the refund itself usually comes back as a bonus bet, which then has to be hedged again (at a haircut, since you can't get 100% of a bonus bet's face value back in cash).

Formulas

Profit if Win = Stake * (DecimalOdds - 1)
Refund Amount = Min(Stake, Refund Cap)
Cash Value if Lose = Refund Amount * Bonus-Bet Conversion Rate

Net Loss if Lose = Stake - Cash Value if Lose

EV (with insurance) = P(win) * Profit if Win - P(lose) * Net Loss if Lose
EV (without insurance) = P(win) * Profit if Win - P(lose) * Stake

Insurance Value = EV(with) - EV(without) = P(lose) * Cash Value if Lose

The "Bonus-Bet Conversion Rate" input reuses the same hedge-conversion logic as Mode A, expressed as a flat percentage (typically 60-80%) so you don't have to re-enter hedge odds twice.

Mode C: Deposit Match Bonus

Deposit match bonuses look large on paper, but most of that value bleeds away in the rollover (playthrough) requirement, since every dollar you're forced to wager loses money on average at the sportsbook's hold rate.

Formulas

Bonus Awarded = Min(Deposit * Match% , Max Bonus Cap)
Rollover Base = Include Deposit? (Bonus + Deposit) : Bonus
Total Rollover Required = Rollover Base * Rollover Multiplier

Expected Rollover Cost = Total Rollover Required * Average Hold %
Net Cash Value = Bonus Awarded - Expected Rollover Cost
Conversion Rate = Net Cash Value / Bonus Awarded

A standard -110/-110 two-way market has a hold of about 4.5% (1 - 2/(1.909+1.909)), which is a reasonable default for "average hold per rollover" unless your book's markets run juicier or thinner than that.

Key Takeaway

Across all three modes, the number that matters is the conversion rate, not the headline bonus size - a "$500 deposit match" at 10x rollover and 5% hold converts to roughly the same net value as a much smaller, no-rollover free bet. Use this calculator to compare offers on an apples-to-apples cash basis before deciding which promotions are worth pursuing.