If-Bet Calculator

A tool for evaluating a straight if-bet chain: a series of bets where each one only gets action if every bet before it in the chain has won.

What Is an If-Bet?

An if-bet ("action reverse" is the two-directional version - see the Reverse Bet Calculator for that) links two or more single bets in sequence:

• Bet 1 is always action.
• Bet 2 only becomes a live wager if Bet 1 wins.
• Bet 3 only becomes a live wager if Bets 1 and 2 both win, and so on.

This is different from a parlay, where all legs are wagered simultaneously and the whole ticket is graded as one bet with multiplied odds. In an if-bet, each leg is a separate, straight-odds wager - you just don't risk the later stakes unless the earlier ones already won.

It's also different from a reverse bet, which runs the same if-bet logic in both directions at once (A-if-B and B-if-A, each at half stake) so that the order the games are played in doesn't matter. A straight if-bet only runs in one direction.

How the Calculator Works

For a chain of n bets, there are n + 1 possible outcomes: losing at bet 1, losing at bet 2 (after bet 1 won), ..., losing at bet n, or winning every bet in the chain. The calculator lists all of them with their probability and net dollar result.

Formulas

Profit_i = Stake_i * (Decimal Odds_i - 1)

For scenario k (k = 1..n, losing at bet k after winning bets 1..k-1):
  Net_k = Sum(Profit_1 .. Profit_(k-1)) - Stake_k
  P(scenario k) = Product(p_1 .. p_(k-1)) * (1 - p_k)

For the "all bets win" scenario:
  Net_all = Sum(Profit_1 .. Profit_n)
  P(all win) = Product(p_1 .. p_n)

Expected Value = Sum over all scenarios of [ P(scenario) * Net(scenario) ]

Win probabilities (p_i) are your own estimate for each leg - the calculator does not source live odds, lines, or results.

Why Only Bet 1's Stake Is "Guaranteed Risk"

Because later bets in the chain only become live wagers if earlier ones win, you don't hand over the full chain's stakes up front the way you would with a parlay. The calculator reports both numbers: Guaranteed Risk (Bet 1's stake - what you're exposed to no matter what) and Total Contingent Stake (the sum of every leg's stake - the funds you need available if the chain keeps winning).

When to Use an If-Bet Instead of a Parlay

• Order-dependent situations: if you want Bet 2's action to depend on Bet 1's result (e.g. only betting the second half total if you won the first half spread).
• Bankroll protection: an if-bet caps your first-leg risk exactly like a straight bet, whereas a parlay risks the full combined stake on every leg simultaneously.
• Sequential events: if-bets are a natural fit when the legs happen in a defined order (e.g. Game 1 of a day's slate, then Game 2), since a book can grade Bet 1 before Bet 2 has even started.

The trade-off is that if-bets pay out at the sum of each leg's straight profit rather than the multiplied odds of a parlay, so the maximum payout is typically much lower than an equivalent parlay for the same legs.